'It's the tariffs, stupid': How Donald Trump won Canada's election for Mark Carney

In an election that was supposed to be a referendum on a tired Liberal dynasty, but it was US President Donald Trump - not Mark Carney - who turned the tide.

Driving the news
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party pulled off a historic comeback, winning Canada's federal election Monday, fueled not by promises about domestic reforms-but by US President Donald Trump 's tariff threats and sovereignty insults.

The Liberals, written off months ago, surged back by positioning themselves as the bulwark against Trump’s economic aggression, nationalist rhetoric, and annexation threats that angered Canadians from coast to coast.

“We were dead and buried in December. Now we are going to form a government,” David Lametti, a former Liberal Justice Minister, told CTV.

As per the latest trends, Liberals were projected to win the most seats in Parliament, although it remains unclear whether they will govern with a majority or need support from smaller parties.

Why it matters
This result marks the Liberals' fourth straight term and underscores how foreign policy-especially perceived threats to Canadian sovereignty-can dramatically reshape domestic politics.

The left coalesced around the Liberals at a scale not seen in half a century, while Trump’s tariffs and casual talk of turning Canada into the 51st US state obliterated Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative momentum.


Historian Robert Bothwell didn’t mince words: “The Liberals ought to pay him. Trump talking is not good for the Conservatives.”

The moment echoes the 1988 Canadian election, when free trade with the US became the central issue-but this time it’s about keeping distance, not integration.

The big picture

• Until January, the Canadian election looked like a slow-motion trainwreck for the Liberals. Justin Trudeau , burdened by nearly a decade of inflation, housing crises, and scandal, resigned. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, were up by twenty points. Then Trump took office again - and declared Canada should become the United States' "51st state."
• The insults didn't stop. Trump slapped new tariffs on Canadian goods, froze car manufacturing plants, and flooded social media with threats. By the time Canadians went to the polls, the election was no longer a choice between stagnation and change - it was a fight for national identity.
• Trump’s return to the White House unleashed a wave of Canadian patriotism, driving record early voter turnout-7.3 million ballots cast ahead of election day.
• Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, ran on his steady-hand economic record and direct warnings about the real threat Trump poses to Canada’s independence and economy.
• Conservative leader Poilievre’s Trump-style populism-emphasizing cost of living, crime, and immigration fears-was drowned out by a louder nationalistic call for unity against American pressure.
• Trump’s taunts triggered boycotts of American goods, declines in cross-border travel, and a surge in visible nationalism-maple leaf flags adorned cars, storefronts, and “Never 51” T-shirts even in traditionally separatist Quebec.
• “The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” Carney warned days before the vote.
• Even on election day, Trump posted again on social media suggesting Canada should join the US, claiming, "It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!"

What they are saying

• At the ground level, the Trump effect was visceral. Many Canadians didn’t just dislike Trump-they saw him as an existential threat.
• Reid Warren, a voter in Toronto, said he backed Carney's Liberals because Poilievre “sounds like mini-Trump to me.”
• “Canadians coming together from all the shade being thrown from the States is great, but it’s definitely created some turmoil, that’s for sure,” Warren added.
• As per a Politico report, Doug Ford, Ontario’s conservative Premier, tried to warn Poilievre months ago. His blunt advice echoed James Carville’s 1992 mantra: “It’s the tariffs, stupid,” Ford said.
• But Poilievre never pivoted, maintaining a domestic-focused, Trump-adjacent message that increasingly alienated centrist and moderate voters.
• Dan Moulton, a Liberal strategist, said it plainly: “The reason our third- and fourth parties weakened is because voters from those parties are rushing to the Liberals to stop Pierre.”

Between the lines

• Trump didn’t just fuel Liberal momentum-he forced a seismic shift in Canada’s political dynamics:
• The New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloc Québécois, once essential players in Canada’s fragmented parliamentary system, were sidelined as voters rushed to larger parties.
• A once multi-party election effectively became a two-party tribal contest-a rare phenomenon in Canadian politics.
• And Carney, once viewed as a technocratic outsider, morphed into “Captain Canada,” a symbol of national defense against American encroachment.
• At a rally, one woman even interrupted Carney’s remarks to shout: “Lead us, big daddy!”
• In another twist of irony, it was Trump-the figure most associated with smashing global alliances-who pushed Canadians toward embracing a traditional collective identity anchored in independence, solidarity, and resistance.

A global pattern: Trump, the unexpected midwife of the Left
The shock in Canada mirrors a broader phenomenon across the Anglosphere. As per a report in the Economist, Trump's tariffs and foreign policy chaos have inadvertently lifted struggling center-left leaders elsewhere - Anthony Albanese in Australia, Keir Starmer in Britain. A dynamic political scientist might call it “The Trump Bump - for Liberals.”

In Canada, the center-left was flailing until Trump made sovereignty the ballot question. In Australia, Albanese's numbers soared after Trump reignited trade wars. Even in the UK, Starmer’s favorability bumped up after standing visibly apart from Trump during an Oval Office meeting.

“Trump has crippled, if not destroyed, the global trade architecture that has existed for 75 years,” said Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the US Studies Centre. That collapse is fueling an appetite for stability - and the left is the unlikely beneficiary.

What’s next
Carney's victory masks daunting challenges ahead:

• Uniting a fractured Canada: Western provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, furious at another Liberal victory, are flirting with secessionist sentiment. Carney must quickly show western Canadians they are heard-or risk deepening national fractures.
• Managing Trump: Canada’s $450 billion in exports to the US are under siege. Trump’s threats of auto tariffs and steel sanctions could hammer Canadian industries like manufacturing, energy, and agriculture.
• Calming the US-Canada relationship: Trump’s talk of "acquiring" Canada has fundamentally altered perceptions. As Chrystia Freeland, a former finance minister, put it:
• “One of the big projects is figuring out how does global security work when the US is not the guarantor of the free world.”
• To keep relations stable, suggestions are already floating that Carney appoint a conservative ambassador, like Jean Charest, to Washington.
• Economic resilience: Carney promised that every dollar collected from counter-tariffs would go back into supporting Canadian workers hit by the trade war. But broader structural challenges-high housing costs, inflation, and supply chain disruptions-remain acute.

Bottom line
Mark Carney didn’t just beat Pierre Poilievre-he won a battle for Canadian identity. And Donald Trump, more than any Canadian political rival, handed him the victory.

(With inputs from agencies)