India's Q4 FY25 GDP Growth Seen Rising To 7.0%, Full-Year Estimate Trimmed To 6.3%: UBI Report

New Delhi: The growth rate of the Indian economy in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025 will clock 7.0 per cent, with an uptick from the third quarter (Q3 FY25) of 6.2 per cent, according to a report by Union Bank of India (UBI).

As per the UBI report, the revised estimate for full-year FY25 growth is likely to be lowered to 6.3 per cent from 6.5 per cent previously. Gross Value Added (GVA) growth for Q4 FY25 is likely to improve to 6.7 per cent from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY25, the report added.

The report added that high-frequency indicators present a mixed trend, though the economic activity index indicates a slight upward bias.

"Our heatmap of high-frequency indicators shows a mixed picture even as our economic activity index signalled a mild upward bias. The latter tracks well with GVA ex agri & government, a metric of private sector activity, and hence we see it showing a pickup to 6.8 per cent in Q4 from 5.9 per cent in Q3 FY25," the report added.

Citing the RBI Bulletin, the report says that indicators signal a sequential improvement in economic momentum during the second half of FY25, with this trend expected to continue.

The RBI's GDP nowcast projects Q4 FY25 growth at 6.6 per cent. Factors such as a possible revival in rural demand, continued government spending, and large-scale religious events like the Mahakumbh are likely supporting this recovery.

"Apart from a likely revival in rural demand and a sustained pickup in government spending, other factors like the organisation of mass religious gatherings via the Mahakumbh (Rs 2 to 3 lakh Cr nominal growth impact as per media reports) may have played a key role in supporting growth recovery," the report added.

Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected India's GDP at 6.2 per cent in FY25 and 6.3 per cent in fiscal 2026, driven by strong private consumption, even as global growth slows to 2.8 per cent in 2025.

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