Why Israel seized the ceasefire: Calculating the costs of a prolonged war with Iran

Now that there's a ceasefire between Iran and Israel after a 12-day aerial and missile war, it's important to understand why the conflict happened, and why it ended.

Benjamin Netanyahu has been on a sticky domestic wicket for a long time. Corruption cases against him and his wife are reportedly iron-clad. The only thing that stopped a near-civil war situation in Israel is Hamas' attacks on Oct 7, 2023. That banded Israelis together as the country embarked on a mission to flatten Gaza. Israel's senseless act of targeting civilians, accompanied by its political leadership's support for means like forced starvation, cutting off of electricity and water, all point to ethnic cleansing and genocide.

It is in that background that IAEA's statement on Tehran not being transparent with its nuclear research surfaced. That instantly gave Israel fodder for a wider war, one if waged, would not just drown out the popular resentment against Netanyahu, but also carried the promise of drawing the US into the fire.

Israel's understanding of Iran's military and political situation was flawed. It thought Iran lacked serious military capability, decapitate its political and military top brass, and that the Iranian people will rise up and topple the regime. It had invested in nurturing resentment within Iran for years, building Humint assets who proved pretty effective in the first 3 days of the war. Israel banked on a short war like the 1967 Six-Day War. That was a cardinal error.

As Iranian missiles and drones started hitting critical military and industrial facilities in Israel many times a day, it became evident that this was the tip of the iceberg, and that Iran could go on for weeks, even months. Israeli anti-missile systems were running woefully short of expensive missiles, which take time to build.

Israel is a small country of about 22,000 sq km. In a long war, it would have suffered immeasurably more than a country about 70x its size and with 10x its population. Israel couldn't have won a war of attrition with Iran, something its military leadership started to realise. Also, Iranian society coalesced around its political leadership, with even the regime's critics standing behind the government against Israeli belligerence. Which was when Netanyahu sent an SOS message to Donald Trump. By then, the US, too, had started smelling the proverbial coffee.

USAF bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities was strange in the way it was conducted. Satellite images dating back to June 19 showed frenzied activity of heavy-duty trucks at Fordow nuclear centre in Qom. It looked like the facility was being evacuated, with entry and exit gates covered by massive mounds of earth.

The post-strike satellite image of Fordow showed 3 hits on the top of the granite mountain, and 3 more down by 80 m on the side. Now, Fordow's contour-mapping reveals that the centrifuges halls and storage chambers are all located beneath the mountain, reportedly at a depth of about 80 m from the base. The mountain itself is over a km tall.

Now, assuming 12 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), a.k.a. 'bunker-busters', were sent into the 6 holes, 2 per hole, penetration would have been impossible beyond 100 m, considering the structure is a solid granite mountain. This still falls nearly 900 m-1 km short of where the facility is.

The Natanz facility, which was non-operational for quite some time, had two MOPs dropped into its underground facilities. But Isfahan, which is operational, was only targeted by Tomahawks, none of which can penetrate underground bunkers.

While Trump went around boasting how B-2 bombers 'completely and totally obliterated' Iran's nuclear facilities, J D Vance dropped a bombshell, saying almost 400 kg of enriched uranium - enough for at least 10 atom bombs - was unaccounted for. This concern was also echoed by Israeli authorities, who said equipment had been removed from Natanz and Isfahan. Remember, Tehran had already said they were in the process of commissioning a fourth enrichment facility, but did not divulge its location.

By then, both Israel and the US came to certain realisations:

Iran's nuclear programme could have been set back by a few months, not destroyed.

Attempt at regime change had failed.

The two above objectives can't be achieved from air and sea. Israel doesn't have forces or resources for a land invasion. The US and Nato militaries are under-prepared for that purpose.

A long war of attrition will destroy Israel, bleed the US economy, and possibly cement even a battered Iran's position as the most influential power in the region.

Both sides had a significant part of their defensive warfare capabilities severely impaired, while retaining offensive capabilities. That would have hurt Israel, with its small geography, much more. Hence, the US stepping in and getting both sides to agree to a ceasefire.

The writer is an independent journalist.


(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com)